The Polymarket prediction for “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” experienced a significant reversal in sentiment, with the YES contract price plunging 37.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, from 69.5% to 32.5%.
This sharp drop indicates a rapid shift in market expectations about the likelihood of such heavy maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. Notably, whale trading activity diverged from the price move, as indicated by flagged data showing that large traders’ flow did not align with the declining odds. Despite the price collapse, whales did not increase net exposure to YES contracts, suggesting they were either neutral or possibly positioned against the price move.
Trading volume over the 24-hour window reached $15K, reflecting moderate engagement from the broader market amid the volatility.
This combination of a sharp price drop and contrasting whale behavior signals uncertainty and a contested market view on the prospect of 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the end of July 2026. The market is actively repricing the event’s likelihood, but large traders’ reluctance to follow the price move suggests caution among informed participants.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +37.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 32.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 69.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.