The YES contract on Polymarket asking if Ed Miliband will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026 collapsed by 62.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 68.5% to just 6.0%.
This dramatic repricing contrasts sharply with whale activity, which saw net inflows of $22K into YES positions. Whales bought $37K worth of YES contracts while selling $16K, across 89 unique whale addresses, indicating substantial interest contrary to the price move.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market was $31K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $52K from 210 unique traders. The Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 60.5%, which notably diverges from the Polymarket Breaking feed’s 6.0% price, underscoring a significant split between on-chain data and the market’s current pricing.
This divergence between whale flow and price action signals a contested market where large traders are increasing exposure to YES contracts even as prices plunge. The combined picture points to unsettled sentiment and heightened uncertainty around this outcome.
| Market | Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2632926 |
| 24h price change | +62.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 6.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 60.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $22K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $37K / $16K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 89 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $31K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 210 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.