The probability that the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) will win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections rose sharply by 21.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 56.5% to 77.5%. This represents a significant repricing of the market’s outlook on UBJP’s electoral prospects.
Whale flow data confirms this upward move, with large traders increasing their net exposure to YES contracts in tandem with the price rally. This alignment between whale activity and price action suggests that informed participants are supporting the shift in market sentiment rather than contradicting it.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours reached $13K, underscoring a solid level of engagement around this contract.
This combined price and flow pattern signals growing market confidence in UBJP’s chances to secure the most seats, with whales reinforcing the price momentum rather than resisting it. The surge to a 77.5% probability marks a decisive move in the market’s assessment of the election outcome as of July 20, 2026.
| Market | Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954816 |
| 24h price change | +21.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 77.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 56.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.