The probability of the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) winning the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections jumped 24.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours, rising from 53.0% to 77.5% on Polymarket.
This significant repricing was accompanied by whale activity that aligned with the price move, indicating that large traders supported the market’s bullish shift on UBJP’s prospects. The 24-hour trading volume for this market was $10K, reflecting moderate liquidity amid the surge.
The alignment of whale flow with the price increase suggests confidence among influential participants that UBJP is positioned to secure the plurality of seats. This coordinated move between price and whale bets strengthens the market’s signal, as both retail and large traders appear to be converging on a higher likelihood for UBJP’s success.
Such a decisive shift in probability within a single day points to new information or sentiment driving expectations ahead of the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections. The combined price and flow data underscore a market consensus moving sharply in favor of UBJP capturing the most seats in the regional parliament.
| Market | Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954816 |
| 24h price change | +24.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 77.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 53.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.