The probability that Donald Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 surged 42.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 41.0% to 83.5%. This marked increase coincided with whale trading activity that moved in tandem with the price change, indicating alignment between large investors and market momentum.
During this period, the market recorded $32K in volume, reflecting heightened trader interest in this question. The substantial shift in odds suggests a reassessment of the likelihood of UFO file declassification within the next five days, possibly driven by emerging information or sentiment shifts among informed participants.
Whales’ net positioning supported the price move, reinforcing the market’s upward repricing. The synchronization of whale flow and price action often signals conviction among major traders that the event is increasingly probable, though it stops short of confirming the outcome.
This combined price and flow pattern points to a market consensus moving strongly toward an affirmative resolution on the UFO files question, underlining significant confidence in the timing of any new disclosures by mid-July.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +42.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 83.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $32K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.