The probability that former President Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 jumped 54.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, soaring from 36.5% to 90.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic rise reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment and expectations surrounding the timing of potential disclosures.
Notably, whale trading activity moved in tandem with the price change, as indicated by the alignment of flow and price. This suggests that large traders reinforced the market’s bullish repricing rather than opposing it, lending weight to the upward momentum.
Trading volume over the same period reached $24K, underscoring increased market engagement with the contract. The combined effect of a substantial price move and supportive whale flow signals a consolidated market view that the event is highly likely before the mid-July deadline.
This repricing and whale confirmation indicate a consensus shift in expectations, reflecting either new information or reassessment of existing data by prominent market participants. The contract’s surge to a 90.5% chance sets a clear benchmark for market confidence as the July 15 date approaches.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +54.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 90.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.