The Polymarket contract on whether Trump will sign the housing bill by the end of July saw its YES price collapse 44.0 percentage points in 24 hours, plummeting from 46.0% to just 1.9% as of July 11. This dramatic repricing contrasts sharply with whale activity, which flowed $9K net into YES bets over the same period.
Whales bought $10K worth of YES contracts while selling only $916, spread across 17 unique whales, signaling a strong whale preference for the YES outcome despite the market’s steep decline. The total 24-hour volume on the market was $37K, with lifetime volume at $11K and 38 unique traders recorded.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 1.9% diverges significantly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 56.5%, underscoring a substantial discrepancy between the on-chain valuation and the Polymarket displayed price.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement suggests conflicting market forces: while whales are increasing exposure to YES, the broader market sentiment or trading activity is driving the market price sharply lower.
Overall, the combination of a severe price drop alongside significant whale buying activity signals a contested outlook on the likelihood of Trump signing the housing bill by the end of July, reflecting a market in flux rather than consensus.
| Market | Trump signs housing bill by end of July? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674205 |
| 24h price change | +44.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 46.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 56.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $9K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $916 |
| Unique whales (24h) | 17 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $37K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 38 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.