The market “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw its YES contract price climb sharply by 41.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 47.0% to 88.0% as of July 10, 2026. This significant repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment about the likelihood of new UFO files being declassified by the specified date.
Whale trading activity aligned with this price movement, confirming the tape’s direction rather than diverging from it. The synchronization between large traders and the broader market suggests a consensus among influential participants that the probability of declassification has increased markedly. Polymarket recorded $50K in volume over the same period, underscoring active engagement but not an overwhelming surge in liquidity.
The combined rise in price and confirming whale flow signals a strong market conviction that new UFO files will be released by July 15. This repricing and aligned whale behavior indicate traders are rapidly incorporating new information or reassessing existing data to support a much higher likelihood of the event occurring within the timeframe.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +41.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 88.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 47.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $50K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.