The probability that Tamas Sulyok will be out as President of Hungary by July 31 surged 18.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 81.5% to an overwhelming 99.9%.
This sharp increase was supported by whale activity, with 60 unique whales contributing $46K in buy volume against $29K in sell volume, resulting in a net $16K inflow into YES contracts. The alignment of whale flow with the price move signals a strong consensus among large traders backing the rapid repricing.
Overall 24-hour volume on the market reached $42K, a figure comparable to the whale buy volume alone, highlighting the outsized influence of large traders on this price action. Since inception, the market has seen lifetime volume of $223K and participation from 466 unique traders, indicating sustained interest but concentrated recent activity.
The combined surge in price and whale buying suggests growing conviction that Sulyok’s presidency will end by the stated deadline, reflecting either new information or shifting sentiment among influential market participants. This repricing phase marks a critical moment for the market’s implied outcome, pushing it close to a near-certain event.
| Market | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2698250 |
| 24h price change | +18.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 81.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 99.9% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $16K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $46K / $29K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 60 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $42K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 466 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.