The market on whether Tamas Sulyok will be out as President of Hungary by July 31 saw its YES probability fall sharply by 19.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 90.0% to 70.5% according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 14.
Despite this significant decline in market odds, whale activity diverged from the price move, with a net $12K flowing into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $32K, while sell volume was $20K, across 64 unique whales. This divergence between whale flow and price suggests that large traders are placing bets contrary to the broader market’s retreat in confidence.
Overall 24-hour volume on this market reached $29K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $167K with 383 unique traders participating. The discrepancy between Polymarket Breaking’s YES price of 70.5% and Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 79.0% further highlights uncertainty or differing interpretations among participants.
This combination of a sharp drop in market-implied probability with continued whale buying indicates a contested outlook on Tamas Sulyok’s tenure, reflecting a market in flux rather than consensus. The divergence underscores that while many traders have reduced their conviction, some large actors remain confident in the YES outcome.
| Market | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2698250 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 70.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 90.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 79.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $12K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $32K / $20K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 64 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $29K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 383 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.