The Polymarket contract asking whether the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse from 92.2% to 0.05% in the past 24 hours, a dramatic 92.1 percentage point decline.
This steep repricing occurred alongside $34K in trading volume but was marked by a divergence between price movement and whale activity. Large traders, often referred to as whales, did not follow the downward price trend, indicating a disconnect between retail sentiment and big-money flow.
The divergent whale flow suggests that while the broader market is sharply lowering expectations for the GPT model hitting the 1460 score threshold, major players remain unconvinced by the selloff. Such a split can point to an unsettled market where price changes are driven by retail traders or short-term factors rather than sustained conviction from substantial investors.
This combination of a near-total collapse in the YES price and opposing whale behavior highlights a complex repricing dynamic. It underlines the importance of monitoring both price action and large trader flow to understand evolving market sentiment on AI development milestones.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2831020 |
| 24h price change | +92.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.05% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 92.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $34K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.