The Polymarket contract “Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw its YES price surge by 50.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 37.5% to 87.5%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment toward the event.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, as 49 unique whales accounted for $25K in buy volume and $12K in sell volume, resulting in a net $13K inflow into YES positions. The alignment of whale flow with the price increase suggests that large traders are reinforcing the growing confidence in this outcome rather than opposing it.
Despite the Polymarket Breaking feed showing a YES price of 87.5%, the Polydata on-chain midprice remains much lower at 42.5%, indicating a divergence between the market price and on-chain liquidity metrics. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket was $24K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $40K with 87 unique traders participating.
This combination of rapid price appreciation and coordinated whale buying signals heightened conviction among informed traders, pushing the market odds sharply higher. The market appears to be pricing in a strong likelihood that over $30 million will indeed be committed to the Credible public sale, reflecting a marked change in expectations over the last day.
| Market | Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845812 |
| 24h price change | +50.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 37.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 42.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $13K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $25K / $12K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 49 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 87 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.