The Polymarket prediction on whether Oleksandr Syrskyi will be out as Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026, saw its YES contract price jump sharply by 32.0 percentage points in 24 hours, climbing from 31.0% to 63.0%.
This significant repricing reflects a substantial shift in market sentiment, with the probability now implying a much higher chance of Syrskyi’s removal within the timeframe. The $13K traded volume over the last day indicates steady engagement from traders.
Notably, this price movement was confirmed by whale flow, which aligned with the tape, signaling that large investors supported the surge rather than opposing it. This alignment between price action and major market participants adds weight to the shift in implied odds.
The combination of a strong price increase and supportive whale activity suggests that the market is collectively reassessing the likelihood of Syrskyi’s exit, pushing the probability to nearly two-thirds. This repricing and flow pattern highlight growing conviction behind this outcome, reflecting updated information or sentiment among Polymarket participants.
| Market | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2951849 |
| 24h price change | +32.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 63.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.