The probability that NVIDIA will be the second-largest company by market capitalization on July 31 jumped 32.0 percentage points in 24 hours, climbing from 7.0% to 39.0% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity supported this move, with a net inflow of $5K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume reached $28K while sell volume was slightly lower at $23K, involving 39 unique whale traders. This alignment between whale flow and price indicates coordinated conviction rather than a divergence between large traders and the broader market.
Polymarket recorded $26K in trading volume on this contract over the last 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $115K and engaging 192 unique traders overall. The combined surge in price and whale buying suggests a substantial reassessment of NVIDIA’s chances within the prediction market community.
The sharp increase in odds, confirmed by whale support, signals growing confidence in NVIDIA’s potential to rank second in global market cap by the end of July. This convergence of price action and large trader flow underscores a meaningful shift in expectations for this outcome.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674076 |
| 24h price change | +32.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 39.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 7.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 37.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $28K / $23K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 39 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $26K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 192 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.