The probability that Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by August 31 rose sharply by 23.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, moving from 13.0% to 36.0% on Polymarket. This substantial repricing was supported by whale activity, which showed a net inflow of $10K into YES contracts during the same period, with $16K in whale buy volume offsetting $6K in sells across 43 unique whales.
The alignment between the price move and whale flow indicates a consensus shift among large traders toward higher confidence in the event occurring. Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for this contract was $16K, contributing to the lifetime market volume of $50K from 161 unique traders, reflecting sustained interest in this question.
Notably, the Polymarket YES price at 36.0% differs significantly from Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 21.0%, highlighting a divergence between the platform’s live market and the broader data snapshot. The combined data suggest that both retail and whale participants have recently recalibrated their expectations upward, pushing the contract’s odds substantially higher.
This coordinated price and whale flow movement signals a growing market conviction that Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearance by the end of August is more likely than previously estimated, marking a meaningful update in trader sentiment for this event.
| Market | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2658302 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 13.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 21.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $10K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $16K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 43 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 161 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.