Odds that Kylian Mbappe will be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup jumped 52.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, soaring from 41.5% to 93.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a major shift in market sentiment about Mbappe’s scoring prospects.
The surge was confirmed by whale activity, which aligned with the price move. Over the same period, whales contributed a net inflow of $530K into YES contracts, with $1000K purchased and $469K sold. This sizable whale buy volume helped sustain and accelerate the rally in Mbappe’s odds.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume on this market reached $1.18M, indicating strong overall trader interest alongside the whale participation. Since inception, the market has amassed $6.45M in volume from 9,810 unique traders, underscoring its liquidity and broad engagement.
The combined sharp price increase and whale buying pressure signals a robust consensus that Mbappe is poised to lead the scoring charts at the tournament. The market now prices this outcome as very likely, reflecting fresh information or sentiment shifts among both retail and high-stakes participants.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2069638 |
| 24h price change | +52.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 93.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $530K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $1000K / $469K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 504 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $1.18M |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 9,810 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.