Odds for Kylian Mbappe to be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup jumped 51.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 41.5% to 92.5%. This dramatic repricing coincided with strong whale activity, as 533 unique whales collectively bought $1.14M and sold $581K, resulting in a net $555K inflow into YES contracts over the same period.
Overall 24-hour trading volume in the market totaled $1.31M, representing a significant portion of the market’s lifetime volume of $6.60M. The alignment of whale flow with price movement indicates that large traders were actively reinforcing the shift in market sentiment rather than opposing it.
This surge reflects a decisive market consensus forming around Mbappe’s likelihood as the tournament’s top scorer. With nearly half of all unique traders on Polymarket having engaged in this market, the combined price and whale flow signals suggest a strong shift in collective confidence in this outcome.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2069638 |
| 24h price change | +51.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 92.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 92.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $555K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $1.14M / $581K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 533 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $1.31M |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 9,863 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.