The market “Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?” saw its YES contract price plunge 25.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 51.5% to 26.5% as of July 19. This dramatic repricing marks a significant shift in market sentiment against Allam’s chances.
Contrary to the price drop, whale activity diverged from the downward move. Large traders net bought $5K into YES contracts, with $11K in buy volume against $6K in sell volume over the same period. Sixty unique whales participated in the market during this window.
Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $13K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $52K and involving 275 unique traders in total. The divergence between whale flows and price action suggests that while the broader market is sharply lowering Allam’s odds, some large investors are accumulating positions betting on his eventual victory.
This split between whale buying and the steep price decline indicates uncertainty or differing views on Allam’s electoral prospects. The combined data points to a contested market narrative rather than a uniform consensus, making this a key contract to watch for future shifts in betting behavior and sentiment.
| Market | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822538 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 26.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 27.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 60 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 275 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.