The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw its YES price jump by 82.9 percentage points in the last 24 hours, increasing from 3.5% to 86.4% as of July 12. This dramatic repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment around the event.
Whale activity tracked on-chain supports the price move, with net whale flow of $5K directed into YES contracts during the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $11K against $6K in sells, spread across 65 unique whales, indicating broad participation among larger traders. The total Polymarket 24-hour volume for this market was $11K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $17K among 134 unique traders.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 86.4% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 93.0%, suggesting some divergence between on-chain valuation and the live market price. However, the alignment of whale buying with the price increase signals that larger traders are reinforcing the rapid upward move.
This combined surge in price and whale flow signals a significant reassessment of the probability that Iran will target shipping on July 12, reflecting heightened conviction among major market participants. The scale and speed of this repricing mark a clear shift in expectations for this event.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +82.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 86.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 65 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 134 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.