The market on whether Count Binface will secure second place in the Clacton by-election saw a significant repricing over the past 24 hours, with the YES contract rising 19.5 percentage points from an estimated 51.0% to 70.5% on Polymarket. This surge marks a notable shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Trading volume in the market reached $15K in the same period, reflecting active participation around this outcome. Notably, whale trading activity aligned with the price move, indicating that large investors contributed net inflows into YES positions rather than opposing the rally. This synchronization between whale flow and price movement suggests that influential traders are increasingly confident in Count Binface’s chances of finishing second.
The combination of a sharp price increase and supportive whale flow underlines a growing consensus among market participants that Count Binface’s prospects have improved markedly. This repricing also implies that the market is now pricing in a substantially higher likelihood of a strong electoral performance in Clacton.
Overall, the data signals a meaningful change in expectations, with both retail and whale traders pushing the probability well above the 50% threshold, reinforcing momentum behind the YES outcome in this election market.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 70.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.