The Polymarket contract “Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?” saw a significant shift in sentiment over the past 24 hours, with the YES price dropping 26.0 percentage points from an estimated 90.5% to 64.5% as of the July 10 snapshot.
This sharp decline in market odds contrasts with whale activity, which notably diverged from the price move. Despite the large drop in implied probability, whale flow did not follow suit, indicating a disconnect between large traders’ positions and the broader market pricing. The 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $20K, reflecting active interest amid this volatility.
This divergence between price and whale flow suggests that while the general market reassessed Count Binface’s chances of securing second place in the Clacton by-election downward, major players maintained steadier exposure.
Overall, the combination of a 26.0pp price drop and opposing whale flow highlights a complex dynamic in the market’s interpretation of this electoral outcome, underscoring the evolving nature of sentiment on Polymarket as new information and trader behavior unfold.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +26.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 64.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 90.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $20K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.