The market on whether Count Binface will secure second place in the Clacton by-election saw a dramatic 39.0 percentage point drop in its YES price over the past 24 hours, falling from 79.5% to 40.5%. This sharp repricing occurred amid $15K in trading volume on Polymarket.
Notably, whale activity diverged from the price movement, with large traders moving against the direction of the price shift. While the market’s odds collapsed nearly by half, whales did not support the rapid decline, signaling a disconnect between the tape and major bets.
This divergence suggests that while retail or smaller traders pushed the price down sharply, significant traders either see value at the lower price or anticipate a different outcome. The combined effect of a steep price drop paired with opposing whale flow highlights uncertainty and active repositioning around Count Binface’s electoral prospects.
Overall, the market’s rapid recalibration paired with contrasting whale behavior indicates unsettled sentiment on Count Binface’s second-place chances in the Clacton by-election.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +39.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 79.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.