The probability that the Cook Islands Party will win the most seats in the 2026 parliamentary elections surged by 25.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 50.5% to 75.5% on Polymarket. This substantial repricing reflects a strong shift in market sentiment toward the party’s prospects.
Alongside this price movement, whale trading activity confirmed the market’s new direction, with large investors adding net $0 into YES contracts, indicating alignment between significant capital flows and the price increase. Total volume for the market reached $22K in the same period, signaling active participation and interest.
The combined upward price move and whale flow suggest growing confidence in the Cook Islands Party’s chances of securing the most seats in the upcoming election. This repricing indicates that market participants have materially adjusted their expectations based on recent developments or information, solidifying the party’s position as a leading contender in the 2026 race.
| Market | Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2953600 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 75.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $22K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.