The market on whether the next Claude Opus model will be released by July 24, 2026, saw a sharp increase in its YES contract price, rising 15.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 78.0%, up from an estimated 62.5% a day earlier. This notable repricing reflects growing confidence among traders that the release will occur by the specified date.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, with 27 unique whales participating in the market during the same period. These large traders generated $3K in buy volume against $1K in sells, resulting in a net $1K inflow into YES contracts. This buying pressure from whales complements the price increase, suggesting that substantial capital supports the higher likelihood now implied.
Overall trading volume on Polymarket for this market reached $10K in the last 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime volume of $19K from 95 unique traders. The combined data points indicate that both retail and whale participants are increasingly bullish on the Claude Opus release timing, pushing the market odds closer to four-fifths probability.
The coordinated rise in price and whale buying signals that the market is pricing in a stronger consensus around the July 24, 2026 release expectation, marking a notable shift in sentiment within a short timeframe.
| Market | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2925816 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 78.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 62.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 78.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $3K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 27 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 95 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.