The probability of Anthropic removing paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026, plunged 28.5 percentage points within 24 hours, dropping from 29.5% to just 1.0% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a sudden shift in market sentiment against the event occurring.
Contrary to the sharp decline in YES price, whale activity diverged from the price movement. Large traders did not reduce their YES positions accordingly, creating a notable disconnect between the tape and whale flow. This divergence suggests that while the broader market rapidly discounted the chance of paid plan removal, whales maintained or accumulated exposure to the YES side.
The market recorded $15K in volume over this period, indicating active trading but not overwhelming liquidity. The opposing signals from price and whale flow highlight uncertainty or differing interpretations of the underlying fundamentals among market participants.
The combined data points to a contested market stance rather than consensus on this outcome.
| Market | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2929730 |
| 24h price change | +28.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 29.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.