The Polymarket contract “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” experienced a significant reversal in sentiment over the past 24 hours. The YES price tumbled 17.0 percentage points, falling from an estimated 68.5% to 51.5% as of the July 11 snapshot.
This sharp price decline occurred alongside a notable divergence in whale trading activity. Despite the drop in YES price, large traders moved counter to the price direction, signaling a disconnect between the tape and whale flow. The market recorded $5K in volume during this period, reflecting moderate trading interest.
The divergence between price and whale flow suggests uncertainty or conflicting views among major market participants about the likelihood of this scenario.
This contrasting dynamic between price action and whale flow highlights a contested market narrative. It signals that despite the recent drop in consensus odds, significant capital remains active on the opposite side of the trade, underscoring the evolving debate over this geopolitical maritime event.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 51.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.