The market on whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12 saw a significant repricing, with the YES contract falling 15.0 percentage points to 30.5% over the past 24 hours, down from about 45.5% a day earlier. This notable drop reflects a reduced market consensus on the extension happening within the given timeframe.
Contrary to the downward price move, whale flow diverged from this trend, indicating net buying into YES contracts. This divergence between large investors’ activity and the price suggests that while retail or broader market sentiment turned more skeptical, whales maintained or increased exposure to the extension outcome.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours totaled $16K, reflecting moderate liquidity as the market digests the evolving prospects of Claude Fable 5’s paid-plan continuation.
This split between price decline and whale purchases signals uncertainty and a lack of consensus about Anthropic’s intentions, underscoring the need to watch both price action and large flow to gauge conviction levels in this event.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839715 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.