The market for whether the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw a sharp decline in its YES contract price, dropping 18.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 1.1%, down from 20.1%.
This dramatic repricing occurred amid relatively low trading volume of $5K on Polymarket. Notably, whale activity diverged from the price movement: large traders did not increase their exposure to YES positions, indicating a disconnect between retail price action and whale flow.
The divergence suggests that while the broader market has rapidly reduced its confidence in the Grok model reaching the high score threshold, whales remain cautious or neutral, refraining from reinforcing the sell-off.
Overall, the combined data points to a significant drop in market-implied probability for the Grok model achieving a 1460+ score at debut, with whale flow not confirming the rapid decline. This signals a nuanced market view where retail sentiment drives the price lower, but whales have yet to align their positions accordingly.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +18.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 20.1% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.