The market asking whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12 saw its YES probability collapse by 18.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 36.5% to 18.5% as of July 11. This sizable price decline occurred amid $9K in 24-hour volume on Polymarket.
Notably, whale flow diverged from this price move, with large traders net buying YES contracts despite the sharp drop in odds. This divergence between whale activity and the tape suggests that while the broader market grew more pessimistic about an extension, major participants increased exposure to the YES outcome.
The disconnect between price action and whale flow highlights a bifurcation in sentiment on the question of extending Claude Fable 5’s paid-plan access.
Overall, the combined data points depict a market undergoing significant repricing with conflicting signals from volume and large trader behavior, underscoring uncertainty about Anthropic’s decision timeline and strategy for Claude Fable 5 access.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839715 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 18.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.