Weather markets across 39 cities hold $244.72M in active volume, underscoring the sector’s growing traction among prediction traders. London commands the largest share with $62.13M in volume, supported by a tight forecast range for today’s high between 32°C and 33°C, reflecting strong consensus among sources.
Atlanta stands out for the widest forecast disagreement, with sources diverging on today’s high by 5.9°F, ranging from 87.3°F to 93.2°F. This spread accompanies $9.38M in trading, highlighting heightened uncertainty and opportunity in this market. Similarly, Seattle shows a notable 5.4°F spread on its forecast high of 80.2°F to 85.6°F, with $7.42M in volume.
Other cities illustrate geographic diversity and varying forecast dynamics. New York City sees $55.13M traded with a moderate 3°F forecast spread between 71°F and 74°F. Seoul’s $19.70M volume accompanies a 1.5°C forecast range from 24.5°C to 26°C, while Ankara’s $7.42M market reflects a 1.8°C spread. In the Southern Hemisphere, Wellington trades $7.42M amid a 1.4°C high temperature range of 11°C to 12.4°C, and Buenos Aires sees $7.37M with a narrower 0.9°C spread.
The combination of deep liquidity in London and pronounced forecast splits in cities like Atlanta and Seattle indicates varied trader sentiment and forecasting challenges. Markets with wider forecast spreads tend to attract larger bets as traders seek to capitalize on unsettled weather predictions, while narrow spreads signal greater consensus. This dynamic shapes the weather vertical’s evolving landscape across multiple continents.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | $62.13M | 32°C–33°C | 1°C |
| New York City | $55.13M | 71°F–74°F | 3°F |
| Seoul | $19.70M | 24.5°C–26°C | 1.5°C |
| Atlanta | $9.38M | 87.3°F–93.2°F | 5.9°F |
| Dallas | $9.34M | 95.5°F–99.6°F | 4.1°F |
| Ankara | $7.42M | 24.2°C–26°C | 1.8°C |
| Wellington | $7.42M | 11°C–12.4°C | 1.4°C |
| Seattle | $7.42M | 80.2°F–85.6°F | 5.4°F |
| Buenos Aires | $7.37M | 10.1°C–11°C | 0.9°C |
| Toronto | $7.11M | 27°C–29.4°C | 2.4°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-05. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.