The probability that the next Grok model from xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, collapsed from 60.0% to 4.5% over the past 24 hours, a 55.5 percentage point drop.
This dramatic price move occurred alongside $10K in 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket, highlighting significant market activity. However, the flow of whale bets diverged from the price action: while the YES price plummeted, whales net invested $0 into YES contracts during the same period, signaling a disconnect between large investors and the broader market sentiment.
The divergence suggests that while retail or smaller traders sharply downgraded the likelihood of Grok achieving the high performance benchmark by the end of 2026, whales either remained neutral or potentially expected a different outcome. This split between tape and whale flow underscores uncertainty or conflicting views about xAI’s next model capabilities.
Such a severe repricing combined with neutral whale activity points to a possible reevaluation of Grok’s near-term prospects by the market at large, while larger players hold steady, indicating complexity in consensus about the model’s future performance.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +55.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 4.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 60.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.