The market on whether Kylian Mbappé will record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup saw a dramatic shift, with the YES price rising 35.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 39.0% to 74.5% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant increase in confidence around Mbappé’s performance at the tournament.
Whale activity aligned with this price movement, as 25 unique whales contributed a net $3K in purchases of YES contracts. Their buy volume of $5K exceeded sell volume of $2K, reinforcing the bullish adjustment in the market. Total 24-hour volume for the market was $7K, a substantial portion of its $27K lifetime volume, indicating concentrated recent interest.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 74.5% diverges from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 61.0%, suggesting some variance between real-time market sentiment and aggregated on-chain data. This gap highlights how quickly sentiment can shift on Polymarket’s live feed compared to broader data snapshots.
The combined surge in price and supportive whale flow points to growing conviction in Mbappé’s chances to lead the 2026 World Cup in goal contributions. The market’s sharp upward move, backed by significant whale buying, signals that participants are rapidly repricing this outcome as far more likely than a day ago.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2117909 |
| 24h price change | +35.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 74.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 39.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 61.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $5K / $2K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 25 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 233 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.