The market probability that the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, plunged 63.9 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 68.5% to 4.5% on Polymarket.
This dramatic repricing occurred amid a divergence between price movement and whale flow: despite the sharp decline in YES contract prices, whale traders did not increase their net bets on YES, indicating they did not confirm the market’s bearish shift. The 24-hour trading volume on this market was relatively modest at $10K, suggesting the price move was driven more by broad market sentiment than by heavy whale participation.
The disconnect between the steep drop in YES prices and the lack of whale support highlights a rare scenario where retail or smaller traders appear to be driving the narrative, while larger traders remain on the sidelines or maintain prior positions.
Overall, the combined price collapse and divergent whale flow suggest a significant reassessment of the contract’s prospects, with the market sharply lowering expectations for the model’s debut performance despite no major whale bets reinforcing that view.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +63.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 4.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.