The market asking if the next GPT model from OpenAI will debut with a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse 78.8 percentage points in the last 24 hours, dropping from 85.8% to 7.0% as of July 10.
This dramatic repricing was accompanied by whale flow that diverged from the price movement, meaning large-scale traders did not follow the steep decline in the contract’s odds. Despite the sharp fall in YES price, whales did not add net funds to the YES side, creating a disconnect between price action and whale positioning.
Polymarket recorded $11K in volume on this contract during the same period, reflecting active trading amid the volatility. The divergence between whale behavior and the rapid price drop suggests uncertainty or differing views among major market participants about the likelihood of the next GPT model achieving the specified score.
The combination of a steep price decline and contrasting whale flow points to a market in flux, where retail sentiment and large traders are not aligned. This tension highlights the evolving debate over AI progress benchmarks as the 2026 deadline approaches.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2831020 |
| 24h price change | +78.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 7.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 85.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.