The market on whether the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES contract price collapse by 60.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 70.0% to just 10.0%.
Despite this steep decline in price, whale activity diverged notably from the downward price movement. In the same period, whales net bought $11K in YES contracts, with $16K in buy volume against $5K in sell volume across 37 unique whale traders. This divergence of flow from price is flagged as unusual, indicating that large traders are accumulating positions while the broader market price moves sharply lower.
The 24-hour total market volume was $16K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $72K with 250 unique traders participating. Notably, the Polymarket YES price of 10.0% differs substantially from the Polydata on-chain mid price of 87.0%, highlighting a significant split between the Polymarket interface and on-chain valuation.
The sharp repricing signals a reassessment of the probability that the next GPT model will meet the score threshold, while whale flow implies confidence or hedging strategies that do not align with the broader market sentiment.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2668020 |
| 24h price change | +60.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 70.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 87.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $16K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 37 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 250 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.