The Polymarket contract on whether the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price jump 19.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 35.0% to 54.0% as of July 10.
This sizeable repricing reflects growing market belief in the model hitting this benchmark. Whale investors contributed $3K in net flow into YES positions, purchasing $7K and selling $4K in volume over the same period. The alignment of whale activity with the price move indicates coordinated buying pressure rather than a divergence between large traders and the broader market.
Despite this, the Polymarket YES price at 54.0% substantially trails Polydata’s on-chain mid-price estimate of 72.5%, highlighting a gap between on-chain valuation and the market price. Total 24-hour volume on the market stood at $7K, within a lifetime volume of $36K, with 37 unique whales and 159 unique traders participating.
The combined effect of a sharp price increase and matching whale buying suggests a meaningful shift in sentiment on the model’s potential.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2659165 |
| 24h price change | +19.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 54.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 35.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 72.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 37 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 159 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.