The market on whether “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw its YES price leap 50.4 percentage points within 24 hours, rising from 48.5% to 99.0%, according to Polymarket Breaking data dated July 10, 2026.
This dramatic repricing reflects a rapid shift toward near certainty that the files will be released by the specified date. The $105K in 24-hour trading volume underscores active participation and heightened interest in this question.
Notably, whale flow aligned with the price move, indicating that large traders supported the surge in YES contracts rather than opposing it. This alignment between whale activity and market price confirms the conviction behind the sharp increase.
The combined picture of a doubling in implied probability and whale buying pressure signals strong consensus formation in the market. Traders are collectively pricing in a high likelihood of disclosure of new UFO files under Trump by mid-July, reflecting either emerging information or reassessment of release odds.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +50.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 48.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $105K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.