The probability that Donald Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 surged 36.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 47.0% to 83.5% on Polymarket. This significant price move signals a major shift in market sentiment ahead of the mid-July deadline.
Whale trading activity aligned with the price change, with large investors increasing their net exposure to YES contracts. This concurrence between price and whale flow suggests that well-capitalized traders are driving the repricing rather than reacting passively to retail interest. Total volume for this market over the past 24 hours reached $62K, indicating strong liquidity and active participation.
The rapid increase in odds reflects growing confidence among Polymarket participants that Trump will release new UFO documents within the specified timeframe. The combined price and whale flow data imply a consolidation of conviction behind this outcome, making it a focal point for traders monitoring geopolitical and disclosure-related events.
This repricing episode highlights how influential whale behavior can amplify market moves, reinforcing trends and providing insight into underlying expectations on high-profile prediction markets.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +36.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 83.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 47.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $62K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.