“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” YES price jumps 40pp to 85% on aligned whale buying

The Polymarket prediction market asking if “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw its YES contract price climb sharply by 40.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 45.0% to 85.0% as of the July 10 snapshot. This dramatic repricing indicates a major shift in trader sentiment toward the likelihood of such a disclosure happening within the specified timeframe.

Notably, whale activity tracked closely with this price move, as flagged by Polymarket’s data showing that large traders’ flow aligned with the upward price momentum. This coordination between whale buying and the price jump suggests that informed or high-conviction participants are backing the increased odds rather than pushing against the market trend. The 24-hour volume on this market reached $55K, highlighting substantial trading interest accompanying the price change.

The steep rise from below even odds to a strong implied probability level reflects a significant reassessment of the event’s feasibility. The alignment of whale flow with this price surge adds weight to the market’s new consensus, signaling that the crowd is not only pricing in the possibility but that key players are reinforcing it through their positions.

This combined price and flow action marks a notable moment in the market’s trajectory for this question, emphasizing a collective increase in confidence that Trump will release new UFO files by the mid-July deadline.

View this event on Polymarket →

Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.