The market on whether the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, saw a substantial repricing over the past 24 hours. The YES contract surged by 21.5 percentage points, rising from 51.5% to 73.0%, reflecting increased confidence in a strong model debut.
Whale trading activity moved in tandem with this price shift, as net whale flow into the YES side totaled $3K within the same period. These larger traders bought $6K worth of YES contracts while selling $3K, indicating a clear tilt toward backing the higher score outcome. The 24-hour Polymarket volume for this contract reached $6K, out of a lifetime market volume of $31K, with 40 unique whales and 152 unique traders participating overall.
This alignment between whale flow and price movement signals that informed traders are reinforcing the market’s bullish reassessment of OpenAI’s upcoming GPT model capabilities. The coordinated increase in both odds and whale commitment suggests conviction behind the view that the model will meet or exceed the 1480 score threshold by the end of 2026.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2659165 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 73.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 72.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 40 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 152 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.