Odds that an AI model will reach a 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026, surged 18.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 24.0% to 42.5%. This sharp repricing was accompanied by whale activity aligned with the price move, with a net $3K flowing into YES contracts amid $6K in whale buy volume and $3K in whale sell volume. The market saw $5K in total volume over the same period, with 28 unique whales contributing to the flow.
The move is notable for the significant divergence between the Polymarket YES price at 42.5% and the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 26.5%. This gap suggests that trading sentiment on Polymarket has become more optimistic relative to the broader on-chain data. With a lifetime market volume of $41K and 152 unique traders, this market is attracting substantial engagement around the potential for AI to achieve a high benchmark score.
The combined increase in price and aligned whale flow signals growing conviction in the possibility of this AI milestone. The market’s rapid adjustment and coordinated whale buying point to a reassessment of the likelihood that an AI will reach this Math Arena Score by the end of 2026, reflecting evolving expectations within the prediction market community.
| Market | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1831671 |
| 24h price change | +18.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 42.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 24.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 26.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 28 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 152 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.