The market on whether Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 surged 39.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 48.0% to 87.5%, according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 10. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market expectations about the timing of UFO file disclosures.
Whale activity tracked this move closely, with large traders increasing their net exposure to YES contracts. The alignment of whale flow with the price surge suggests that informed actors reinforced the market’s confidence rather than opposing it. Total 24-hour volume on the market reached $33K, indicating robust trading interest accompanying the rapid odds adjustment.
This swift upward move in probability and matching whale flow signals a strong consensus forming around the likelihood of Trump releasing new UFO files imminently. The combined price action and whale bets underscore a growing belief that the event will occur by the mid-July deadline, tightening the market’s outlook on this politically sensitive disclosure.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +39.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 48.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $33K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.