The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding jumped 24.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 32.0% to 56.5% on Polymarket. This significant repricing coincided with strong whale activity, where 73 unique whales collectively bought $9K and sold $5K worth of YES contracts, resulting in a net $4K inflow into the YES side.
The 24-hour volume for this market totaled $9K, matching the whale buy volume, indicating that larger traders largely drove the price movement. Over the lifetime of this market, total volume has reached $149K, with 408 unique traders having participated. The alignment between whale flow and the price increase suggests that informed large traders are confident in the rising odds.
This surge in the YES price signals a shift in market sentiment toward Max Martin attending the event, reinforced by substantial whale backing. The combination of a 24.5 pp price jump and $4K net whale inflow highlights growing conviction among key market participants about this outcome.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +24.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 56.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 56.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 73 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 408 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.