The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding surged dramatically by 28.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 31.6% to 59.7%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment on a question that has drawn attention from 407 unique traders since inception.
Whale activity tracked closely with the price move, as 73 unique whales participated in the market during this period. They bought $9K worth of YES contracts while selling $5K, resulting in a net inflow of $4K into YES. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market totaled $9K, matching the whale buy volume and indicating that large traders were a key driver of the price jump.
Since the market opened, lifetime volume has reached $148K, underscoring sustained interest in this celebrity-related event. The alignment between whale flows and the price increase suggests confidence among large traders that Max Martin’s attendance is more likely than previously estimated.
This combined surge in price and whale buying activity signals a notable shift in the market’s expectations, reflecting new information or sentiment driving participants to substantially increase their conviction on this outcome.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +28.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 59.7% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 59.6% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 73 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 407 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.