The market “Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch?” saw its YES contract price surge by 24.1 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 71.5% to 95.5% as of July 18, 2026. This represents a substantial revaluation of the probability assigned to the event within a single day.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, with 31 unique whales contributing a net $6K inflow into YES contracts. Their buy volume totaled $9K, while sell volume was $3K, indicating a strong preference for YES positions among large traders. The total Polymarket volume for this market in the same period was $8K, close to the lifetime market volume of $10K, suggesting that this 24-hour window captured most of the market’s trading activity to date.
Additionally, there were 41 unique traders recorded by Polydata, showing moderate participation beyond whale activity. The synchronization of whale flows with the sharp price increase signals broad confidence among major players in the likelihood of the event occurring.
This combined surge in price and whale buying pressure points to a rapid consensus shift on the market. The sharp repricing and aligned whale flows suggest that new information or sentiment has strongly convinced traders that the credible FDV will exceed $10 million one day after launch.
| Market | Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2846011 |
| 24h price change | +24.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 95.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 71.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 95.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $6K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 31 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 41 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.