The market “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?” saw its YES price climb sharply by 15.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 59.5% to 75.0%. This significant repricing reflects growing confidence among traders that the release will happen within the specified timeframe.
Whale activity tracked this price movement closely, with a net inflow of $859 into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $2K, while sell volume was $1K, indicating a clear preference for the YES side among the 21 unique whales active during this period. Overall, Polymarket recorded $7K in trading volume on this market over the same 24-hour window.
Since inception, the market has seen $15K in lifetime volume and engaged 89 unique traders, underscoring sustained interest in this event. The alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests that larger investors are reinforcing the market’s upward shift rather than resisting it.
This combined surge in price and whale buying activity signals a growing conviction in the community that the Claude Opus model will be released by the July 24, 2026 deadline, tightening the market’s odds around this outcome.
| Market | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2925816 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 75.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 59.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 74.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $859 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $2K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 21 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 89 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.