Odds that NVIDIA will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 declined sharply by 23.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, dropping from 68.5% to 45.5%. This sizable repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Notably, this price move diverged from whale activity. Whale net flow into the YES contract was $39K, with $75K bought and $36K sold by 173 unique whale traders in the same period. Despite this substantial whale buying pressure, the market price moved lower, signaling a disconnect between large traders and overall market pricing.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for this market was $77K, a figure closely aligned with whale buy volume alone, underscoring whales’ outsized presence in this market’s trading. The lifetime market volume stands at $1.43M, with 3,174 unique traders having participated, indicating this is a well-established market with broad engagement.
The divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while large traders increased exposure to NVIDIA’s potential to become the largest company by market cap, the broader market pushed odds downward. The combined data highlight a contested outlook rather than consensus, with whales betting on a positive outcome even as prices retreat.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2673621 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 45.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 44.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $39K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $75K / $36K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 173 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $77K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 3,174 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.