The Polymarket prediction on whether the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price fall 15.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, dropping from 57.0% to 41.5%.
This sharp decline contrasts with whale activity, which pushed a net $3K into YES contracts during the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $6K against $4K in sells, spread across 37 unique whale traders. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $6K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $30K with 147 unique traders overall.
Notably, the flow of whale bets diverged from the price move, as indicated by Polymarket data flagged for flow-price divergence. While the market price dropped, whales increased their exposure to the YES side, suggesting a split in sentiment between larger traders and the broader market.
Further complexity arises from a significant difference between the Polymarket YES price (41.5%) and the Polydata on-chain mid-price (72.5%), highlighting discrepancies in pricing sources and possibly differing trader perspectives or timing.
This combination of a steep market price decline with concurrent whale buying points to uncertainty about the GPT model’s performance prospects among different trader segments.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2659165 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 41.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 57.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 72.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 37 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 147 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.