The market on whether the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election will be canceled saw a significant repricing, with the YES contract jumping 15.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours from 49.5% to 65.0%.
This surge was supported by whale activity, which aligned with the price increase rather than diverging. Over the same period, 33 unique whales contributed a net flow of $7K into YES contracts, with $12K in buy volume and $5K in sell volume. This flow closely tracked the $12K total 24-hour market volume, indicating that whale participation played a meaningful role in driving the odds higher.
The lifetime market volume stands at $59K, with 251 unique traders having engaged so far, reflecting a moderate level of market interest. It is notable that the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 65.0% diverges from the Polydata on-chain mid price of 49.5%, suggesting some recent momentum not yet fully reflected on-chain.
The combined rise in price and supportive whale flow signals growing conviction in the market that the 2026 United Left primary cancellation is increasingly likely, marking a clear shift in sentiment over the last day.
| Market | Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2133718 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 65.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 49.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $12K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 33 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 251 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.