The probability that NVIDIA will be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 surged 15.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 19.5% to 34.5% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment around the tech giant’s valuation outlook.
Supporting the price move, whale traders participated actively, delivering a net $2K inflow into YES contracts over the same period. Their buy volume totaled $10K compared to $8K in sells, across 38 unique whales. This alignment between whale flow and price movement highlights coordinated buying pressure rather than a price move detached from large trader behavior.
Polymarket recorded $11K in 24-hour volume on this market, contributing to a lifetime volume of $121K from 209 unique traders.
The convergence of a notable 15pp price increase with positive whale flow confirms a stronger conviction in the contract’s outcome. This dual signal underscores a meaningful reappraisal of NVIDIA’s market position within prediction markets.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674076 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 19.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 34.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $2K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 38 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 209 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.